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Keizai Group – US Economy May Need Fiscal Stimulus.

January 12, 2012 By

Article by Peter Clarkson

“Keizai Group” believes that QE3 would be the wrong prescription for the flagging US economic recovery.

An equity research at “Keizai Group” said, “All QE3 can do is make borrowing cheaper and, frankly, that’s not going to help the millions of unemployed Americans who need to work.”

The firm believes that the Fed will hold off announcing a full-bore round of QE but suggests that President Obama’s address on Labor Day may allude to a new round of fiscal stimulus designed to create jobs working on infrastructure projects like roads and bridges instead.

“The rationale for QE3 is flawed since it can’t make companies hire workers; all it does is end up in equities and commodities which only benefits Wall Street,” said an “Keizai Group” research analyst.

“Printing money is not a panacea for the ailing U.S. economy. The unemployment/slow growth quandary is due to structural problems and to policy uncertainty, not to the lack of monetary stimulus. High marginal tax rates, especially on capital, uncertainty about pension and health care costs, and the lack of rules in the formation of monetary and fiscal policy have disrupted the normal course of commerce.”

The US Labor Department released data last week which showed that the US economy created zero new jobs in the month of August against consensus expectations for a 68,000 gain. The number prompted fresh fears that the US economy is more likely to re-enter a recession.

In addition to the unexpectedly weak August jobs numbers, the figures for the previous two months have been revised down to show weaker jobs growth.

The Labor Department now says that in July 85,000 jobs were created, down from 117,000 in the earlier estimate, while the number of jobs added in June was revised downwards from 46,000 to 20,000. Employment numbers were the weakest since September 2010, according to the Associated Press.

Economists have said that temporary factors have, in part, forced some employers to pull back. High gas prices have cut into consumer spending. And supply-chain disruptions stemming from the Japan crisis slowed U.S. manufacturing production.

The economy typically needs to add 125,000 jobs per month just to keep up with population growth. And at least twice that many jobs are needed to bring down the unemployment rate.

The economy and job market are remarkably weak two years after the recession officially ended. Unemployment has topped 8 percent for 29 months, the longest streak since the 1930s.

“Keizai Group” believes that neither the Federal government nor the Federal Reserve is likely to allow this to happen. “Something will be done; they can’t help themselves,” remarked the analyst.

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US Economy on the Rise

January 8, 2012 By

Article by James McKee

Author is a Forex trader and financial analyst residing in Denver, Colorado. To stay up to date on all the latest developments in the financial world and beyond be sure to check out the online forex trading regularly.










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A Service-Based U.S. Economy and Its Issues

January 4, 2012 By

Today, the United State economy is moving more and more towards a service-based economy. What does this mean? It means that now companies are realizing they have to focus on service and many large, successful corporations are service-oriented. What this means for companies that still sell tangible goods is that they now have to also focus on service, especially when it comes to pleasing the customer. Small businesses that offer iPod touch repair or iPhone repairs are just some of the examples of a service-based U.S. economy. In the following paragraphs we will look at how companies have become service-based and how they have had to change their business strategies to fit the needs of the changing market. There are four issues that companies have had to get around while switching to a more service-based business model. The four issues that will be discussed in greater detail in the following paragraphs are intangibility, inconsistency, inseparability, and inventory.

When dealing with any type of service, there is the issue that it is not something people can see, touch or hear.

So, when considering marketing tactics, companies have to attempt to make their service somewhat tangible. For example, people in the spa/hair salon industry use referrals, testimonials, and maybe they have their degrees from cosmetology school hanging around their station. These are all ways in which people in the service industry attempt to ease people’s minds, since they cannot really “try-out” the service before it is already consumed.

Another issue with services can be consistency. Since people are at the root of the service industry and everyone does and says things a little bit differently, there is room for inconsistency.

To combat this, companies try to create some things that are uniform. For example, people who work in fast-food usually wear a uniform. This makes it seem like everything is consistent.

Thirdly, there is the issue that the service quality is automatically linked the customer/consumer and it cannot be separated. For example, a doctor can tell the patient he/she needs to lose weight and exercise more to lower cholesterol levels, but if the patient does not do those things, then the quality of care is compromised.

The last issue is the fact that the inventory is perishable. Going back to the hair salon for example, if a hairstylist does not have someone coming in for an appointment then the stylist will just have nothing to do until the next appointment. Unlike tangible products that can be put on sale if they are not selling at an exact time, services expire whether or not someone has used them.

Companies have a lot to think about when they enter into any industry in the United States today because there are so many issues that come with being a service-based economy. Even if your company sells tangible goods there is still a service component to it that needs to be addressed. It will be interesting to see the new things companies come up with in terms of customer service, since we are entering a new age where the customer rules, yet companies also want to make a profit, so seeing how companies find that balance will be interesting.

Stewart Wrighter thinks that the iPod Touch repair services on the internet are a good thing. His son recently iPhone Repairs services on the internet.

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Obama and Bernanke – US Economy’s Yin and Yang

December 31, 2011 By

There is a tug of war of negative (yin) and positive (yang) energy in our economy evidenced by a stock market that cannot seem to break free from a very tight trading range. Over the past year the Federal Reserve, led by Ben Bernanke, pumped an unprecedented amount of capital into our economy to keep a fragile financial system from falling apart. At the risk of completely trashing the dollar and potentially igniting a high (even hyper) inflation rarely witnessed in the northern hemisphere, the Fed lowered and has kept interest rates near zero since late last year. It also exploded its balance sheet by trillions of dollars by buying a variety of government and mortgage-related bonds. The Fed’s plan was to reinforce the financial system by flooding the market with liquidity in the hope that all that cash would encourage banks to lend and individuals and businesses to spend, invest and ultimately spur economic recovery.

Despite all that capital and the bailout of our financial system by TARP, bank lending has continued to languish.

Banks have cited poor borrower demand as the cause, but the fact is that banks are terrified to lend. They have been to the brink of extinction and have been forced to submit to government control in order to avail themselves of the capital needed to survive. They fear that even the strictest of lending criteria may not keep them from falling further into the financial abyss as asset values (loan collateral) continue to fall; they also dread the prospect of ever having to seek additional capital from the government. In addition, the Obama administration’s willingness to change the rules of the game and to abrogate the rule of law in order to further its political agenda has compounded those fears and has contributed to an environment too uncertain and risky to justify new investments.

As experts extend their expected time frames for economic recovery, the banks know that conditions are unlikely to improve in the short-to-medium term, and could indeed be exacerbated by the president’s continued priority to implement the most liberal agenda in our nation’s history. The stimulus plan executed last February has thus far proved to be a bust and a growing consensus believes his current “cap and trade” and “healthcare reform” initiatives could have catastrophic effects on the economy and our exploding government deficit. Furthermore, the president’s stated intention to raise taxes on investment capital and small businesses is providing a backdrop of negative energy that could hold both the economy and the stock market hostage for many years to come.

Aggravating an already bad situation is the possibility of replacing Mr. Bernanke when his term expires early next year. The real concern would be if the president replaces him with an individual more sympathetic to his own thinking. That would not only taint the historically arms-length relationship that has existed between the executive branch and the Fed chief, but it could also suck out all the positive energy currently being provided by the Fed. The prospect of replacing Mr. Bernanke is especially ironic because it would appear that replacing Obamanomics with more traditional policies might be just what our economy needs now. Have you noticed that the market seems to rally lately at the slightest hint that the president’s policy initiatives may not pass muster with Congress?

I am hopeful that Congress, especially blue dog democrats, will press the Obama administration to abandon its politics for the sake of our economy and that it will do so before our nation’s yin and yang becomes Cheech and Chong, and sends our economy and our future irretrievably up in smoke!

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China On The US Economy – Is China Dumping The US Dollar?

December 27, 2011 By

Article by Cedric Welsch

This is a moot question and there is no firm answer to this at this point of time. China has gradually started reducing its exposure to the US dollar and it may just be paring its risk, given the uncertainty of the US economic conditions or it may be strategically embattled in dethroning the US dollar as the world reserve currency.

China reduced its US Treasuries holdings substantially in June this year in the face of falling returns on the instruments. Further, China seems to be investing in government paper of Europe, Korea and Japan. As per a US government report, China reduced its holding of long term US Treasuries by $ 21.2 billion in June to $ 839.7 billion. China reportedly has purchased over $ 20 billion more of Japanese debt than it has sold. China has also reportedly doubled its debt exposure in Korea. China’s move to increase its exposure in Asia appears to be aimed towards creating a more diversified investment portfolio given the uncertainty in both the US and Euro zone economies.

China’s move coincides with its other strategic move to remove the peg between the Yuan and the dollar in June this year. The Chinese currency has appreciated by 0.5% since then. At the same time, the Chinese central bank has allowed foreign central banks to increase their investments in the Chinese inter bond market. The three actions when read together, suggest that China is trying to offer its currency as an alternative to the US dollar as an investment option and a reserve currency. However, the Chinese move of selling US Treasuries may simply be its strategy to book profits due to an appreciation in the investments, with the US buying its own treasuries to keep interest rates low.

With China holding the largest dollar reserves, any move by the nation to dilute its holdings could have an impact on the demand for the dollar and its exchange rate. This is a double edged sword for China as a loss in the dollar’s value also results in the loss in the dollar holdings for China. As China has massive reserves of dollars, it cannot afford to let the dollar fall drastically or else it will experience erosion in the value of its dollar holdings.

While one can speculate on what China will do with its dollar holdings and how that can impact the long term value of the dollar, as of now, the dollar continues to be the dominant reserve currency as well the choice as the hedge currency. Any weakness in economic data is likely to make investors take cover in the safety of the US dollar and such a move will lead the dollar to appreciate. With the latest US housing data suggesting that the US economy is on a weak wicket, the US dollar immediately moved up and demonstrated its strength as the currency of choice in times of economic uncertainty. Existing home sales in the US fell 27.7% in July, suggesting the US economy was losing steam again. This led investors pulling out of risky securities including stock markets across the globe and running to the safe haven of the US dollar, which displayed the tendency to appreciate.

Thus, in the immediate future the US dollar continues to be king, with its long term trend depending upon a variety of factors like the performance of the US economy and moves by nations like China in relation to their massive dollar holdings amongst other factors.

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Latest Recession in US Economy………..

December 23, 2011 By

Article by Dia Bijlani

Is “Recession” really going on in US economy? Is US currently in the state of recession? Are US citizens face-to-face with recession? Are people living under the fear of ending up with loss of their jobs, losing into stack markets, going bankrupt, heading to ever highest inflation in the economy, huge downfall in property rates and a lot more…..

Recession is a state when country’s GDP or Gross Domestic Product descents for two sequential quarters. Recession in an economy focuses on negative growth of GDP over two consecutive quarters. This negative growth during recession is more seeable in people’s income, bank balances, payroll systems, lowering employment opportunities, reducing retail sales, lower investment returns and various others.

As per experts, the normal period of recession in an economy is about 1-2 years. The whole economy slows down during recession which leads to panic in the country. The hard time of downfall causes lot of stress in the economy. People point out the root of recession towards government. On the other hand, it is important to know that recession is somehow deflation. If the government tries to improve on economy’s GDP, it has to invest in a lot more money in order to improve liquidity. But this causes an increase in inflation and ultimately stagflation. Hence, government has to make a choice whether to increase liquidity or reduce increase rate.

The U.S. GDP was down 0.2% in the third quarter of 2008, with U.S. economists forecasting a 0.8% fall in the fourth quarter. International Monetary Fund experts forecast the U.S. economy’s growth at 1.6% for 2008. However, they say, in 2009 the U.S. GDP is expected to increase by only 0.1%. Recession has lead to a reduction in global economic growth in U.S., from this year’s 3.9% to 3% in 2009, according to IMF experts. Each quarterly GDP report gets three releases….. In their Q3 2008 GDP report, the preliminary report showed a slowdown of.5%, slightly more than the advance estimate of.3% while advance report showed a downfall in growth by.3%, the second time in a year.

During the rough sledding of recession, with all the above mentioned consequences, people certainly look for options to successfully deal with the alarming situation and emerge out of it without getting much affected. But since we survive in this economy, we can’t get rid of such a national downfall when every other citizen is suffering. Certainly there are ways to beat the recession in the economy and come out as a more confident one. Lowering down interest rates is one of the major steps that government can take to slightly correct the situation. Everyone in the economy has to be focused towards what they do best. Spend less on luxuries, stick to the necessities, save money are the best steps one can do in their general lives. People should not lose hope and confidence as these are the best remedies to success. After all, this is not the end of the world.

Myself, Dia Bilani, an authorized article writer on goarticles. I am into writing business since 2 and a half years. I write articles on every vertical market. For exclusive and creative writing, I am the best resource for any and every firm.










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The Beige Book Report – Is the US Economy Further Slowing Down?

December 11, 2011 By

Article by Cedric Welsch

In the latest Beige Book report today, it believed that the US economy is growing, but at a decelerating pace. The Beige Book is a report on the US economy compiled eight times a year by the US Fed and is based on information from companies in the 12 Fed districts. The overall message of the report was ‘modest growth’ in the US, but five of the 12 districts reported deceleration in growth. These five districts were in eastern US and include New York, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta, and Chicago. The report is based on interviews with companies from mid July till end August period. The report will serve as a guide for the policy level meeting to be held on September 21.

The report highlights that home sales struggled to keep pace after the removal of tax credits in June resulting in a slowdown in construction activity. This also led to a slightly slower demand for loans to purchase homes. Besides home sales, demand for commercial and retail real estate also remained subdued. Thus, it can be clearly deduced that government’s tax credits to support home sales had for a period propped home sales. However, this is not really a sustainable way to generate demand and the government’s stimulus in this regard seems not to have generated anything but temporary results.

Consumer credit also seemed to be on the wane, with consumers cutting their debt exposures. Consumers were seen reducing their credit card bills and were perhaps preparing for a tougher tomorrow. As evidence, consumer credit declined by $ 3.6 billion in July. However, the report suggests that consumer spending continued to increase, though marked by caution.

As per the report, manufacturing activity also continued to expand though at a pace slower than a year ago suggesting that, while the manufacturing sector continued to grow, a slowdown in its pace was evident. This is line with the overall take of the report, which suggests that the US economy is growing, but at a decelerating pace. Demand for agricultural products remained firm, with shortages developing overseas. Exports were also seen supporting manufacturing activity.

The above suggests that internal demand in the US continues to be subdued due to existing economic conditions, but demand from overseas is helping stabilize industry and agriculture to some extent. This actually suggests that external demand can help the US kick start business. But, quite clearly, for exports to be promoted, the US would need to follow a weak dollar policy. A depreciated dollar would make US produce cheaper and increase exports. This could gradually put the US economy in a firm positive growth cycle. However, it is uncertain if the US can openly follow a weak dollar policy as the US still considers itself the world’s economic superpower.

Notwithstanding the Beige Book report, the US economy is still growing and struggling to keep itself afloat. Hopefully, the slow patch that it is encountering at present is just a passing phase and it should take an accelerating pace of growth soon.

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U.S. Economy Suffered from Jolts, Dearth of Data

November 29, 2011 By

In the first quarter of 2011, the U.S. economy has faced many headwinds which are likely to have impact on the growth. The effects could spill into the next three months.

 

Many economists expect that growth will accelerate as the year progresses and they still keep their projection unchanged. The manufacturing sectors will be resurgent and labor market will see slow improvement.

 

However, the housing market remains depressed. According to economist Brian Levitt of Oppenheimer Funds, the data in the housing reports will be poor for quite some time.

 

Investors are looking forward to the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index for April and weekly data of benefits applications.

 

There are good signs in the manufacturing sector.

Companies have been receiving new orders and are creating jobs. The sector has created more 102,000 jobs in the recent three months.

 

The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index, which will be released Thursday morning, is predicted to decline in April.

 

The latest weekly data of benefit applications jumped to 412,000, which was contrary to economists’ previous forecast.

 

The number of people getting jobs in the private sector reached over 400,000 in the past two months.

The figure is expected to continue rising. The cash from those newly employed workers will flow in the economy even if inflation-adjusted wages are not rising.

 

The insurance business was dragged for over a year but  the year 2011 has seen a broad upturn in the sector. Ballew said that that was a good barometer.

 

However, the economy could suffer from greater shock when oil prices continued to be high as most of its sectors depend on oil prices. Prices of many products rose higher due to the surge in the cost of a gallon of gas.

Economics is the study of our lives,our jobs, our homes, our families and the little decisions we face every day. Thus, I am keen on reading and studying economic issues.

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U.S. Economy: Who Has All the Money?

November 21, 2011 By

It’s a slow-growth economy across the board, and it’s going to stay that way for quite a while longer. So, investors have to play the hand that they’re dealt.

I’ve found over the years that it’s very useful to ask simple, common-sense questions about the economy, and the answers can really help sharpen your stock market outlook. For example, ask yourself: who is doing well in this economy? Which industries are growing faster than others? Which companies have all the money? You might be tempted to think the answer to the first question is a windmill repairperson (which, by the way, is the fastest-growing trade), but I ask these questions at the corporate level in order to make better investment decisions in the stock market.

When I break it all down by industry and individual companies, I keep coming up with the same answers—gold miners. Yep, the mining industry is the outperformer in this economy and, for the most part, none of us will ever see the industry up close.

Right now, the gold mining industry has a lot of money, and has the fastest growth in revenue and earnings, and, in my view, the best potential for outperforming all other industries over the coming quarters. It’s a tough business to get your head around because most of us don’t live beside an open-pit mine in a far off land, but the mining business is integral to the industrial economy and to consumers. And now that we have debt and currency troubles, the store of value argument is coming back into play.

The great thing about the gold mining business is that it only really depends on two things: the amount of gold in the ground and the spot price of the commodity. The gold mining business doesn’t really care about the employment situation or housing prices; even the prevailing level of interest rates is less important. Once a miner has poured a bar of gold, he or she does not ever need to worry about selling it. Someone will buy it at a certain price no matter what. This is a fundamental difference between mining for precious metals and other industries. There is always a market for your product if you can find it and get it out of the ground.

From the investor’s point of view, because the gold mining business is one of the strongest in the global economy at this time, it makes sense to consider investments related to the industry. And it doesn’t even need to be the miner itself. How about investing in a business that makes mining equipment or a money manager that sells gold funds?

The domestic economy is in a period of slow growth, because it is still trying to balance itself out after a long period of excess that was mostly fuelled by debt. There’s no need for an investor to rush out and invest in any business because of this. As I say, I always find it useful to regularly ask the simplest of business questions. It used to be that the banking industry had all the money; now gold miners do.

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A US bi-partisan Congressional committee that is supposed to reduce America’s budget deficit by more than a trillion dollars, appears to be near collapse. The so-called “super committee” has split along party lines ahead of a Monday deadline to announce a plan as both parties squabble in the media. Republicans say Democrats will not approve cuts to social programs and want tax increases to accompany spending cuts while Democrats charge their counterparts refuse to raise taxes on the richest Americans. Al Jazeera’s Anand Naidoo reports from Washington.

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WHY OUTSOURCING IS EXCELLENT FOR THE US ECONOMY

November 13, 2011 By

Article by N. Reese Bagwell

CONTRARY TO (SOME) PUBLIC OPINION:WHY OUTSOURCING IS EXCELLENT FOR THE US ECONOMY

The Academic research of many experts who study the economy and especially the global economy, including most recently the work of Fritz Foley and Mihir Desai of Harvard University and James Hines of the University of Michigan, has found on a consistent basis that expansion abroad by U.S. Corporations supports US based employment. These studies have found that, on a repetitive and empirically supportable basis that increases in investment and employment offshore is firmly and intrinsically associated with more investment and employment in American parent companies. The same can be shown to be true for Canadian companies as well.

US companies who employ workers in foreign localities are finding that the skill levels and the very occupation of these workers itself are regularly complementary. They are not only not mere substitutes, but, rather than being harmful, they are beneficial in many ways. Increased US employment offshore directly stimulates an increase in U.S. hiring. As an example, Wal-Mart has found that by opening offshore retail establishments, it has actually created hundreds of U.S. jobs for the workers it requires in order to coordinate the distribution of its product offerings. Offshore affiliate expansion-whether in order to serve foreign customers or to save costs-does, in fact, lead to the expansion of the overall scale of multinationals.

For years, it has been known that the chief benefit of offshore outsourcing has been cost savings. A close second to cost savings as a benefit to offshore placement of non-core activities has been the ability of companies to focus on their non-core competencies. But offshore expansion also empowers firms to substantially improve upon their scope of activities. A prime example of this concept would be that by exporting routine production a company’s employees in the U.S. are freed to focus on higher value-added tasks (and, by the way, higher paying positions) such as R&D, marketing and general management.

Therefore, one finds that the whole of the impact of outsourcing non-core competencies is considerably more advantageous and positively impactful than the oft-cited, overly simplistic histrionics of merely “exporting jobs.” However, the quintessential support for the benefit of offshore outsourcing may be located in the empirical evidence:

If one considers the most recent year of total employment data available from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (1988-2007), over that time period of analysis, employment in offshore locations of US companies increased by roughly 5.3 million (from 6.4 million to 11.7 million). But revealingly, during that same time period, new employment in U.S. companies with offshore affiliates increased by 4.3 million (from 17.7 million to 22 million). As a matter of fact, reliable research reveals on a repetitive basis, that offshore expansion tends to expand U.S. parent company employment figures.

A large number of America’s most successful companies have found that “with substitution comes complementation” between their offshore and their domestic business activity. A prime example is IBM. As most leading US companies have found and continue to find, offshore expansion is good for business- globally and at home. While IBM has been expanding its domestic operations ferociously, last year it announced the location of a new service-delivery center in Dubuque, Iowa, where the company expects to create 1,300 new jobs and invest more than 0 million over the next 10 years.

Another ardent practitioner and defender of offshore outsourcing, Procter & Gamble, have calculated that no less than one in five of its U.S. jobs (and even more in Ohio- two in five) are directly attributable to its global business.

It truly is this simple: an increase in the employment of offshore outsourcing business strategies will increase domestic employment and domestic investments. A reduction of the employment of offshore outsourcing business strategies will directly reduce employment and investment in domestic companies.

Still concerned about the “image” that you will project by offshore outsourcing? If the success of these strategies as proven by the numbers is not enough, savvy C-level company officers should consider the following: The recent sluggishness of the US economy has only served to highlight the importance and benefit of offshore outsourcing to the US economy. Since the genesis of the downturn, December of 2007, payrolls in the private sector have dropped of dramatically. There are currently over 2.4 million less private-sector job positions available than just 10 years ago. Moreover, in 2009, gross private-sector investment fell so low that it did not even cover depreciation in all four quarters so that, for the first time since at least 1947, U.S. private capital stock was depleted throughout an entire annual period.

Therefore, a major policy challenge that the US government and informed company executives face today is that it is no longer simply “good enough” to just to create jobs. The goal for both the government and responsible businesses should be to create high-paying, private-sector domestic jobs to support their core-competencies which are directly linked to performance, investment and trade. History and the evidence that history provides us clearly demonstrates that it is the U.S.-based companies that outsource their non-core competencies that are creating these jobs.

The strongest companies in the US economy have been these US multinationals and those U.S. affiliates who are performing similarly in terms of outsourcing and are headliners on that list of corporate businesses that have consistently accounted for the vast majority of acceleration in U.S. productivity growth after 1995 and this acceleration has, in turn, formed the very bedrock of increased standards of living for all Americans, creating 27.5 million high-paying positions in 2007. In order to climb out of the recession, we need to create millions of the kinds of jobs that U.S. companies tend to create.

Here are some other facts related to US Businesses who strategically outsource offshore:

the average compensation per worker in these savvy global US firms in 2007 was ,248 accounting for about 20% above the average for all other US jobsthey undertook 5.5 billion in capital investment, constituting a full 40.6% of all private-sector non-residential investmentthey exported 1 billion in goods, 62.7% of all U.S. goods exportsthey also conducted 0.2 billion in research and development, a remarkable 89.2% of all U.S. private-sector research and development, the vast majority of which was spent in the USIn other words, if the substantial profits for stockholders, partners & investors is not enough to convince US Businesses of the value of offshore outsourcing… if a more focused performance on core competencies and non-core competencies are insufficient to convince US Businesses of the value of offshore outsourcing, then certainly US businesses can credibly boast that US companies who outsource their non-core competencies are not only maximizing their business proficiencies but they are conducting themselves as good global citizens, creating many badly needed jobs for their global neighbors while comfortably demonstrating that they are also excellent domestic US Corporate Citizens, enhancing the US job market and domestic employment statistics.

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